The mother of all biases
How good do you think your driving is compared to the average person: Are you better or worse than other motorists? You're in good company if you believe you fall within the better half of drivers. Many people think that they’re above-average drivers - and what’s more that they can spell better than they can, and that they can complete tasks in a shorter time than it actually takes them.
Overconfidence is well documented and has been described as ‘the mother of all biases’. It is reinforced by our tendency to blame our failures on outside factors while attributing our successes to our own actions or decisions.
In his 2011 book Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman called overconfidence “the most significant of the cognitive biases”. On a much larger scale, it’s been blamed for the sinking of the Titanic, the nuclear accident at Chernobyl, the loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The list goes on…
What about underconfidence?
Research suggests that overconfidence isn’t always that straightforward and that people actually aren’t very competent at judging their own skills. This can lead to either overconfidence or underconfidence. In difficult tasks, people often overestimate their performance but expect to do worse than average, and the reverse is true for easy tasks. This is because there are different types of overconfidence, and we rely on prior expectations.
So what’s the solution? The best cure for underconfidence is not overconfidence, but to seek out more accurate and truthful beliefs.
The three faces of overconfidence
Psychologists define three distinct categories of overconfidence –overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision [Moore and Healy 2008].
Overplacement is when someone believes that they are better than others. For example, a student might think they have the highest grade in their class when in fact they’re in the bottom half.
Overestimation is when a student might think they scored 90% on a test when they scored 70%.
Out of the three types, overprecision affects inclusivity the most because it’s the tendency to have excessive certainty in one’s beliefs. For example, a manager might make overly precise (butinaccurate) earnings forecasts. One way to overcome this bias is to force people to consider all outcomes – by presenting them with a range and asking them to estimate the likelihood of each being the correct one.
Fake it till you make it
As with imposter syndrome, overconfidence is a psychological issue that can affect mental health in the workplace. When someone is overconfident at work, it can impact how they are treated - even resulting in loneliness and isolation if their colleagues choose to avoid them. That’s why it’s a good idea to have self-check-ins and be honest with yourself, because overconfident behaviour can alienate colleagues and affect work performance.
An overly confident leader might make others uncomfortable sharing their ideas, resulting in little or no collaboration. They might also not recognise or learn from their mistakes.
On the other hand, overconfidence can be beneficial to individual self-esteem and give someone the motivation to succeed in their desired goal – just believing in yourself might give you the ability to take your endeavours further than those who don’t!
Overconfident leaders may also be able to inspire greater effort from their employees and suppliers. For example, an overconfident CEO may demonstrate their belief in the company's future by putting their personal wealth at risk.
Overconfidence and inclusivity
The importance of challenging overconfidence around DEI situations was one of the insights we uncovered during a recent project with a new client.
Our client revealed that their senior leaders were confident they add the knowledge and skill levels relevant to their role, so to challenge this, we set up a pre-course survey to measure their current beliefs and opinions.
When it came to the intervention, we included realistic video scenarios to assess people’s reactions in tricky situations – by asking them to make decisions ‘in the moment’ - in the safe space of an online environment. Sharing best practices also provided new guidance whilst building confidence in their cultural understanding. Tools in the form of checklists and refresher guides were also provided.
On completion of the intervention, they need to complete a follow up survey. This showed that they had underestimated their skills, as their cultural sensitivity scores had increased by a massive 50% from pre to post intervention! For this client, success was all about their people displaying strong cultural awareness and fostering a strong community through the positive impact they make in their role. It also helped to mitigate potential under- or overconfidence and root their behaviours in practice and understanding.
Follow the practice
It’s pretty clear how overconfidence can cloud judgment and lead to an underestimation of risk. It's a reminder of the importance of humility, critical thinking, and a thorough analysis of decision-making processes. In the words of Mahatma Gandhi, “An ounce of practice is worth more than tons of preaching”.
